Do you believe the climate is changing? Actual measurements of temperature and precipitation changes taken across the United States for more than a century indicate that the country has generally become warmer and wetter, and we've seen a dramatic increase in the frequency of intense storms. Do you find this evidence convincing?
If you're still skeptical, perhaps your own observations, or those of people around you, will convince you. Farmers are already seeing a lengthening of the growing season and changing their farming practices. Commercial shipping companies are seeing ice cover the Great Lakes for shorter periods of time every year, making it possible for their ships to travel more days. Power companies in California are seeing changes in the availability of water for hydropower at different times of the year as snowmelt in the mountains is occurring earlier and earlier. Anglers are seeing cold water fish like salmon disappear from waterways. Tribal communities living in coastal areas of Alaska are seeing their homes destroyed as sea level rises and the ice that protected them against storm surges disappears. Public health officials are seeing infectious diseases like Lyme disease spread to new areas as the climate in those locations becomes more conducive to the spread and survival of the diseases.
Are these observed impacts of a changing climate enough to convince you? If not, what would?
Perhaps you believe the climate is changing, but find it hard to believe humans are part of the cause. Does the extent of a human influence really matter when deciding whether to prepare for the potential impacts of climate change? The climate has been changing for millions of years. Regardless of the influence of humans, it will continue to change because of natural variations. If this is the case, doesn't it make sense to anticipate and prepare for ("adapt to”) the risks and opportunities a future climate may hold? And isn't the argument for "anticipatory adaptation" even more compelling if there's a chance humans are in some way accelerating the changes?
If you're a public health official and you know Lyme disease may spread into a previously unaffected area, are you going to start educating people about precautions they can begin taking now, or are you going to wait until the first outbreaks of the disease occur?
If you're running an insurance company and you know million dollar homes built in coastal areas will be at increasing risk of destruction over time, are you going to wait to factor those risks into your rate base? Won't you want to discourage people from building "in harm's way"?
If you have money to invest in a recreational facility, are you going to open a ski resort somewhere the amount of snowfall is likely to decrease as the local climate becomes warmer?
Savvy individuals interested in making sound investments and policy decisions tend to consider all factors that could have a significant impact on their efforts. Wouldn't they be remiss if they didn't account for the potentially significant impacts of climate change?
What do you think they should do? Is anticipating and adapting to a changing climate the smart thing to do?
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