Sunday, May 1, 2011

Were the recent catastrophic storms in the southern United States caused by climate change?

Catastrophic storms roared through the southern United States during the past two weeks, killing dozens of people and destroying property in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.
When weather-related disasters like this strike, people often ask whether they were caused by climate change. The answer climate scientists invariably give is that no single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but the types of extreme events just seen are consistent with the predicted effects of climate change.
This response is unnecessarily equivocal. The climate that exists today in the southern states is the result of changes that have occurred over time. These changes have resulted in a climate that is now conducive to the formation of intense storms like the ones that just occurred, and in which intense storms are likely to occur more frequently than in the past. Similar changes are occurring around the country.
Are the recent catastrophic storms in the south a result of climate change? Yes.
Asking someone whether a particular storm was due to climate change is like asking Steve Jobs whether the invention of the Apple iPad was due to technological change. I've never had the chance to ask Mr. Jobs the question, but if I did, I'd hope he'd respond, "Of course it was! We're able to make dramatic breakthroughs like the iPad today because of advances in electronics and computer technology that have occurred over time. And the likelihood that we can make dramatic advances like this on any particular day is a lot higher than it was 20 years ago."
Questioning whether a particular weather event is due to climate change is no different than asking whether a technological breakthrough by Apple is due to technological change.
The next time someone asks you whether a particular weather event is due to climate change, your answer should be yes. And to the extent you believe humans are partly responsible for ongoing changes in climate, you should consider that we must take some responsibility for the disastrous weather events that are occurring today. They're not all just "acts of God."

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